09.09.08

MILLIONS OF American students are back in high school, and before the year is done more than 1.1 million will drop out. In many of the nation's cities and low-wealth rural districts, 40 to 60 percent of entering freshman will not graduate. The suburbs are no longer immune.

Retired general Colin Powell, founding chairman of the America's Promise Alliance, has called this a "national catastrophe." It's an expensive one, with a price tag of more than $150 billion for each cohort of dropouts who are more likely to be in poor health, living in poverty, or receiving public assistance. They are three times more likely to be unemployed, and eight times more likely to be incarcerated.

Yet there is hope. The dropout crisis is solvable. It's a matter of getting the right interventions to the right students at the right time.

We know where help is needed most. Research shows 15 percent of high schools produce more than 50 percent of the nation's dropouts. Students starting at these 2,000 high schools typically come from middle schools at which children are already falling off the graduation track.

We know who needs help the most. As early as the sixth grade, students at risk of dropping out can be identified by three "off-track" indicators: poor attendance; disruptive behavior or lack of effort; and course failure, particularly in math or English. In high-poverty environments, up to 75 percent of sixth- to ninth-grade students with even one off-track indicator do not graduate high school.

We know how to get them back on track. Research tells us that continuous support from trained and dedicated adults working as tutors, mentors, monitors, and problem solvers works. In combination with the transformation of the secondary schools that produce most of the dropouts and increased wraparound supports for the neediest students, these additional adults working closely with skilled teachers and administrators are the key to ending the dropout crisis.